PUTIN AT THE ABYSS
On Friday, September 30, despotic Vladimir Putin reached the abyss with his disastrous invasion of Ukraine. Faced with humiliation and potential defeat, the dictator brazenly announced his illegal annexation of eastern Ukrainian provinces and arrogantly threatened America and Europe with nuclear war. However, in reality, Putin has tragically cornered Russia by his own misjudgments. But this only now makes him far more dangerous. This critical moment comes at the turning point of the war for Ukraine. During September, Ukraine has mounted a counterattack against the demoralized, poorly led and incompetent Russian invaders, liberating thousands of square kilometers of its territory and isolating key Russian positions. Moreover, supported by America, resilient Ukraine has caught Russia by surprise with superior military intelligence and training. Likewise, the exceptional Ukrainian military spirit in defense of their homeland starkly contrasts to the Russians, who are dying by the thousands, abandoning their equipment and chaotically retreating.
ILLEGITIMATE ANNEXATIONS
Undaunted, Putin staged a bizarre, choreographed and flamboyant celebration at the Kremlin to announce the illegitimate annexation of four Ukrainian regions to justify his ruthless and problematic war of conquest. At the same moment, Russian troops were busy murdering more Ukrainian civilians in the same regions. Firstly, Putin’s seizure of Ukrainian land has met with essentially universal condemnation. Moreover, Russia does not exactly control any of the four regions it now falsely claims to be Russian territory. Likewise, as Ukraine continues its inexorable advance, Moscow will conveniently claim that Kyiv is now invading Russia. Therefore, Russia will blame America and NATO to justify escalation and/or the use of nuclear weapons that Putin has threatened. Needless to say, Ukraine cannot accept the bogus annexations following fake referendums. And Putin’s announcement prolongs his war: either Moscow must secure all of the four regions or lose. The stakes could not be higher.
OUTLANDISH THREATS
Putin is trying to freeze the war on his terms by consolidating the 15% of Ukraine he overran to justify his grotesque adventure. Therefore, the despot claims to be “rescuing” residents who were forced to cast open ballots at the point of a gun. Naturally, 99% “voted” yes. But most of the population had already fled. Apparently, Moscow believes that Russians will gullibly believe this farce. Meanwhile, at the same time, Moscow has called up 300,000 reservists as cannon fodder. Traffic jams continue at the borders of Finland and Georgia as Russians flee. A tipping point has been reached. However, accompanying these desperate steps are outlandish threats against America and Europe, including the Baltics, Poland and forthcoming NATO members Finland and Sweden. And most worrisome, the possible use at least tactical nukes against Ukraine. Consequently, even as outlandish as they appear, America and Europe must take Putin’s threats seriously.
NORD STREAM SABOTAGE
Moreover, Putin has been using energy and the threat of economic blackmail to decouple vulnerable Europe from America, NATO and support for independent Ukraine. To his astonishment, Europe has generally held together. However, at least four documented leaks or explosions coincidentally occurred this week on the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Europe. A NATO statement unambiguously stated that the damage was sabotage. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated, “NATO is committed to deter and defend against hybrid attacks. We will meet any deliberate attack against our critical infrastructure with a united and determined response.” Russia has, of course, denied involvement in the pipeline damage. European diplomats have no doubt Russia is responsible. But the Nord Stream breach threatens to expand the conflict in Ukraine, which has been mostly confined to Ukraine’s borders, and to conflate it with the economic war between Russia and the West.
POINT OF NO RETURN
The “annexations” establish a point of no return for Putin. Firstly, his move to annex Ukrainian territory is an attempt to shore up the perceived legitimacy of Russia’s criminal invasion. This makes it harder for Ukraine to recover its sovereign territory. Then he argues that it is America that has set the “precedent” for nuclear warfare by using atomic bombs against Japan during World War II. And standard Russian military doctrine includes the use of battlefield nukes. Rather than accepting a humiliating defeat, Putin may calculate the military benefits are worth the risks. If Ukraine attempts to recover its territory, Putin vows, “Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions will now “forever” be a part of Russia. We will use all the instruments at its disposal to counter a threat against its territorial integrity—this is not a bluff.” Meanwhile, Putin’s enablers, China and India, help keep the tyrant afloat.
DEFIANT UKRAINE
However, defiant Ukraine will have none of this. With typical Churchillian flourish, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pledged to retake the occupied areas. He has also asked for expedited NATO membership. Meanwhile, on October 1, he announced liberation of the strategic eastern city of Lyman, a major victory against Russia on the very territory that Putin has “annexed.” Resilient Ukraine continues to confound pundits and the western intellectual class. Factions in the West, on the right and left, believed Ukraine should have been left to its fate without aid, accused NATO of provoking Putin, and blame Ukraine for having had the nerve to defend itself against a brutal invader. However, no nuclear escalation is acceptable. Vladimir Putin is a global pariah who has sealed his own doom. A complacent West emboldened Putin. Now a determined West must not allow this creature to drag everyone over the cliff with him.
Dennis M. Spragg is the author of America Ascendant, the Rise of American Exceptionalism, Glenn Miller Declassified and the forthcoming America and Britain, the Essential Alliance. Among related essays are Defiant Ukraine and NATO Reborn.