THE ROAD TO KYIV
On February 22, 2022, Cold War II began with Russian “peacekeepers” pouring into Ukraine. Moreover, the day before, the despotic Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin declared war against Western Civilization in an astonishing exhibition of fiction, ego, paranoia, and vengeance. But for years, Putin has clearly communicated his twisted world view, intentions, ruthlessness, and profound bitterness. Likewise, this creation of the KGB and offspring of the totalitarian Soviet Union has unleashed his perverted form of score-settling by invading Ukraine. But this is only the first step in a self-righteous, “defensive” strategy to protect his mafia-like personal empire, oligarch cronies, and, purportedly, Mother Russia. Therefore, seeking to reverse the decisive and peaceful result of Cold War I, his aggressive plan is to violently make Europe dependent upon him for fuel and food, divorce America from Europe and destroy the NATO alliance.
PUTIN DECLARES WAR
Consequently, Putin has launched Cold War II by declaring that Ukraine has no right to exist as a sovereign nation. Firstly, by his plain declarations and actions, the Russian autocrat is not a rational geopolitical partner. Moreover, Putin does not want to be part of the current international order. He wants to blow it up. Events and experience have led him to jump on the road to Kyiv. However, although not yet evident, by launching Cold War II, he may have gravely miscalculated. But for the moment, the cold reality of Putin’s clear intentions and brutality is difficult for liberal American and European elites, as well as isolationist American conservatives, to grasp. In particular, today’s America First advocates are incapable of understanding that we are now living in a grotesque rerun of 1938. With Ukraine, Putin is recycling Adolf Hitler’s propaganda rationale for decoupling the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia.
CONFRONTING NATO
Putin’s propaganda machine, useful western media and social media fans are circulating the disinformation that NATO is at fault. Welcoming the former Warsaw Pact nations into NATO and the European Union was a “provocation.” However, Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin’s imposition of a post-World War II “buffer zone” enslaved central and eastern Europe behind an Iron Curtain. Therefore, after Stalin rejected the Marshall Plan and blockaded Berlin, America and Europe formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to contain the Soviet Union. Moreover, the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and all the others sought freedom, individual liberty, western values, and modern economies. Likewise, the claim that the liberal and green American and European governments are aggressors who threaten Russia is preposterous. Consequently, following former President Donald Trump’s controversial reassessment of NATO’s purpose and existence, Putin has ironically breathed new life into the alliance.
IT’S ABOUT ENERGY
But Putin has taken advantage of green energy policies. Europe is vulnerable because it is dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. Biden canceled Trump’s energy-independent America the first day he entered office by abandoning the Keystone XL Pipeline and curtailing drilling. Then he played into Putin’s hand by approving the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany. Europe, led by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, put too much faith in unreliable wind and solar energy. Europe requires more nuclear power, as France has pursued, and additional imported American liquefied natural gas. Consequently, President Joseph Biden must courageously suspend his ideological war on fossil fuels. An energy independent America must free Europe from Putin’s energy grip. Furthermore, infuriated by inflation, which many see as a direct result of Biden’s decisions, Americans are not prepared to absorb further energy price increases. Moreover, this is a pivotal legislative election year.
HESITANT SANCTIONS
After the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine voluntarily surrendered its nuclear weapons stockpile upon the insistence of America and Russia. Moreover, the imperfect fledgling democracy has since looked west to Europe for its economic and cultural future. Everyone should welcome President Biden’s newfound conviction and an “appropriate response” to Putin’s Declaration of War. However, Putin will see Washington’s hesitant phase one sanctions as nothing more than a nuisance. Biden at least announced full blocking sanctions on the breakaway “republics,” a Russian military bank and VEB, the state development corporation. Likewise, he also cut Moscow off from Western financing through sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced minimal sanctions on five Russian banks and three wealthy Russians. Germany announced it is halting the certification for Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Ultimately, Democrats must join with Republicans in supporting stronger sanctions and a firmer NATO response.
INTELLIGENCE SUCCESS
America may have finally come to grips with who Putin really is. Stung by a string of failures from Iraq and Afghanistan to Libya and Syria, our intelligence services have succeeded. Following the recent Afghanistan debacle, American representatives have accurately emphasized Putin’s intentions and actions, perhaps even cleverly baiting him. Or at least spooking him into wondering how we can accurately read his orders. Meanwhile, the truth of false-flag operations, bogus provocations, cyber-attacks, and cold-blooded Ukrainian liquidation lists are known worldwide. Moreover, for years, the world has conveniently looked away from a Russian leader who nonchalantly murders international air travelers, journalists, opposition figures, and even hundreds of ordinary Russians. But does even autocratic China, when push comes to shove, really want the ignominy of siding with Putin in an unprovoked war?
WHAT NEXT?
With all pretenses now removed by Putin, America and Europe should assertively confront Russia everywhere, throwing Putin off balance and keeping him guessing diplomatically, economically, and militarily. Likewise, there should be no concessions. Meanwhile, Putin has taken a neutralized Ukraine along the lines of Finland and Sweden off the table. Moreover, America and Europe should make Putin play out a losing hand while containing Cold War II. Consequently, America and NATO should airlift antitank, anti-aircraft and other weapons to impose a higher cost on Putin as he marches on Kyiv. Likewise, America must now send small arms, explosives, and communication equipment for an insurgency before Putin occupies all of Ukraine, seals the borders and sets up his puppet government. Ukraine is physically larger than France and Kyiv is the size of Chicago. Therefore, occupying 44 million angry Ukrainians following a bloodbath is a problematic quagmire for even the ruthless Putin.
STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION
In conclusion, Putin has measured the resolve of America and Europe, and found weakness, corruption, and vulnerability. However, his miscalculation in now attempting to subjugate Ukraine is that he is confronting the liberal democratic system of governance and multilateral global engagement. Moreover, this is the enlightened world order that America, Europe, and the modern world built following World War II and protected during Cold War I. Putin wants to drag Europe back into a new dark age with dishonest arguments and a twisted pursuit of revenge. In gaining tactical advantage by invading Ukraine, Putin has awakened an unfocused Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, his strategic miscalculation in launching Cold War II is that the bedrock principles of Western Civilization are formidable and enduring. This is about national sovereignty, individual freedom, and liberty. These principles matter and must be defended. Consequently, the criminal Putin, like his false Soviet idols, will be contained.
Dennis M. Spragg is the author of America Ascendant, the Rise of American Exceptionalism and Glenn Miller Declassified.