America, Israel and Iran

ISRAEL AT WAR

Following the deadly surprise attack by Hamas on October 7, Israel is at war. President Joseph Biden has equivocated by simultaneously asserting absolute support for Israel but advocating for a restrained response. Although he has reassured frightened Israelis, Biden is mindful of the danger of an expanding confrontation. Moreover, during his October 18 Oval office address, he indirectly criticized the Bush II administration by advising Israel not to repeat American “mistakes” by seeking “revenge.” He also assuaged pro-Hamas leftist sentiment by cautioning against “Islamophobia.” Consequently, the president appears to be mindful of protecting key relationships with exposed Arab governments and allies. Meanwhile he also appears to be pulling his punches with medieval Iran. The president and his Obama-era advisors continue to seek rapprochement. The key words in the president’s unsurprising guidance for Israel: “I feel your pain but hold your fire.”

IRAN’S TIMING AND REASONING

The president who bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan, thus emboldening Putin and Xi, now finds himself in a dangerous quandary. Firstly, it is clear to any rational observer that Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah are puppets that require funds, equipment and expertise from their master in Teheran. Iran’s fingerprints are all over the Hamas attack. Likewise, Iran’s timing and reasoning is obvious, to scuttle pending Saudi Israeli reconciliation, undermine the Abraham Accords and to goad Israel into a decisive response. Or also to simply massacre Jews. Meanwhile, the president has not mentioned Iran as he has warned unnamed opportunists with an ambiguous one word threat, “don’t.” Meanwhile, he has deployed two aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean. It is unclear whether Teheran will be deterred by any expectation that Biden will employ American power if Hezbollah comes into the war.

INEPT IRAN POLICY

The mullahs know that Joseph Biden is risk averse and would never have had the daring to order the assassination of the bloodthirsty Iranian general Qasem Sulemani. Residents of peaceful southern Israeli farming communities have paid the price. Likewise, the Biden administration has been fixated renegotiating the hideous 2015 nuclear deal. Iran’s stance has been to simply delay, press for hostage ransoms, which Washington has paid, and to kick out IAEA inspectors. Iran and its proxies have launched 83 attacks on Americans since President Biden took office, but the U.S. has responded militarily only four times. Teheran and it’s puppets will strike when it serves their purpose. It is also no accident the attack on Israel occurred at the same moment America is defending Ukraine against Russia or China is threatening Taiwan.

AMERICAN POWER

For now, the question is whether President Biden will face reality and cease to be a reincarnation of Neville Chamberlain. Unfortunately, the observation of former Bush and Obama defense secretary Robert Gates is informative. Although Joseph Biden considers himself a foreign policy expert of fifty years’ standing, until Ukraine, the president was never accurate about a foreign policy challenge. Likewise, the president’s commendable concern for humanitarian relief should not extend to naively handing the “Palestinians” in Gaza – in reality the Hamas government – $100 million. However, President Biden’s larger concern should be if Hezbollah opens a second front, and if he has to decide whether to employ American power to directly assist Israel. At that critical moment, which may be coming soon, one might guess that he will want to avoid World War III.

NOTHING OFF LIMITS

On the other hand, President Biden might courageously opt to defend Israel. The cost for Israel to fight a two or three front war will be extraordinary. Hezbollah has far more deadly missiles to unleash on the residents of cosmopolitan Tel Aviv. If President Biden does not assist America’s steadfast and democratic ally, the Beijing-Moscow-Teheran Axis will be further emboldened. At minimum, Teheran must at least fear that its nuclear program, military assets and – importantly, its oil fields and oil exports (that America has foolishly replenished) – are not off limits if they escalate the war against Israel. In conclusion, the victims of Hamas include Americans. President Biden is responsible for American national security and world stability. This is a moment that requires careful but decisive leadership. Joseph Biden cannot blink – and Israel certainly won’t. Remember Sulemani.

Dennis M. Spragg is the author of America Ascendant, the Rise of American Exceptionalism, Glenn Miller Declassified and the forthcoming America and Britain, the Essential Alliance.